Jul 17, 2024 Elections Dashboard July 2024 Analysis
The National Task Force on Election Crises’ Elections Dashboard collates news stories about past and present election-related developments, some of which could become or lay the foundation for actual election crises. Below is the most recent analysis of prominent developments, how the frequency and severity compares to previous months, and the top stories to watch going forward.
Which development type was most prominent in the last month?
Interference
Over the past month, Interference was the most frequent category mentioned, though Violence is top of mind, given the shooting at the Trump campaign rally.
Concerning developments in primary elections over the past month could portend similar challenges this November.
Level 1 - Three poll watchers were removed from Wisconsin polling locations for disruptive behavior. These disruptive poll watchers said that they will be back for future elections.
Level 1 - A Virginia Congressman called for a re-do of one city’s election during his narrow re-election loss in Virginia. While under Virginia law the Congressman had a right to request a recount in the election, redoing elections is considered an option of last resort since it requires throwing out legitimate votes. Responsible candidates should only call for redos when legitimate, admissible evidence of significant problems with the election indicates that it is impossible to determine a correct winner through any other means.
Level 2 - The Washoe County, Nevada board of canvassers voted 3-2 not to certify their county’s primary election results, after public pressure from known election deniers. The Nevada Secretary of State and Attorney General filed a writ of mandamus with the state Supreme Court to compel the county to perform its legal obligation to certify by August 22. On July 16, the County Canvassers voted 4-1 to reverse course and certify the results.
Have any severe developments occurred in the last month?
Political Violence and Certification Interference
Most of the developments in the Elections Dashboard continue to be in the Level 0 to Level 1 range, but there were four Level 2 developments, and one Level 3.
Level 3 - Former President Trump shot at campaign rally
One person was killed and several were injured, including former President Trump, during a shooting at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The apparent assassination attempt against former President Trump is a highly concerning development that warrants unequivocal condemnation. The National Task Force on Election Crises released a statement condemning the violence and saying, “There is no place for violence in American politics.” You can read the statement here.
In addition to the Washoe County development mentioned above, there were three other developments at Level 2.
Level 2 - Lawsuit in Georgia seeks to ‘clarify’ that certifying election results is ‘discretionary’
The America First Policy Institute filed a lawsuit on behalf of a Fulton County election official attempting to “clarify” that the official’s duties to certify the election “are, in fact, discretionary” and not required by law. Georgia law states that these officials “shall” certify the results, and certification occurs after dispute resolutions and court decisions verify the results. Certification interference is part of a larger nationwide effort to cast doubt on the election process and subvert the will of the voters.
Level 2 - Lawsuit says Pennsylvania county deliberately hid decisions to invalidate some mail-in ballots
The NAACP and the Center for Coalfield Justice sued the election board in Washington County, PA, alleging that the county had rejected 259 ballots because of errors without alerting the voters, thus leaving them unable to cast a provisional ballot. Lack of clarity around the county’s ballot counting procedures could result in additional disenfranchisement during the November election. All other counties in Pennsylvania allow voters to cure their ballots.
Level 2 - Georgia's State Election Board initiated rulemaking on multiple rules that could embolden local officials to refuse to certify election results and held a meeting the AG warned might violate Georgia law
The Georgia State Election Board has recently advanced multiple rules that might entitle local election board members to review a wide range of documents and conduct expanded investigations before they certify election results, potentially delaying this mandatory step until after the state and federal statutory deadlines. These rules could embolden local officials to refuse to certify election results, an action that could delay the final outcome of the 2024 election.
How do the frequency and severity of developments compare to previous months?
Concerning Developments Increased
As primary elections continue across the country, concerning developments increased compared to the past month – including poll watcher disruption and county certification interference.
Additionally, states and counties continue finalizing their processes for the 2024 elections. As we mentioned in the previous memo, while many of these developments will be straightforward and provide clear information and processes for voters, others might increase the likelihood of a crisis by providing confusing or contradictory guidance to voters and election officials.
In New Hampshire, Governor Sununu is deciding whether to sign legislation that would increase documentation requirements for voter registration, and which may not give election officials enough time to implement the changes in the law before November (Level 1). The Wisconsin Supreme Court changed course and will allow expanded use of ballot drop boxes in November’s election (Level 0).
What are the top stories from last month to watch going forward?
Uncertainty and Certification Interference
The apparent assassination attempt against former President Trump and speculation about whether or not President Biden will be the official Democratic nominee have injected uncertainty into the early stages of the 2024 election. We will watch how heightened security factors into election administration and will monitor whether violence or threats of violence continue to play a role in the 2024 election. We will also continue to track developments in the Democratic Party as they consider how to proceed with their candidate’s nomination, and the potential implications for election administration.
In addition, recent developments show the ongoing risk of county officials illegally refusing to certify election results, and through lawsuits and proposed regulations, we are seeing an increase in attempts to give county canvassers more discretion than currently allowed by law. State officials should take seriously their own role in ensuring that counties follow proper election law, and more education must be done so that the public understands that there are multiple layers of dispute resolution before county officials vote to certify the results.