Aug 21, 2024 Elections Dashboard August 2024 Analysis
The National Task Force on Election Crises’ Elections Dashboard collates news stories about past and present election-related developments, some of which could become or lay the foundation for actual election crises. Below is the most recent analysis of prominent developments, how the frequency and severity compares to previous months, and the top stories to watch going forward.
Which development type was most prominent last month?
Election Administration
Over the past month, the majority of developments that we observed pertained to Election Administration. While none of these developments constitutes a Level 3, they do warrant continued monitoring, as the magnitude of their impact on the November elections remains to be seen.
Concerning developments in primary elections over the past month could portend similar challenges this November.
Level 0 -In Arizona, global computer outages impacted early voting. The outage—the result of a defective software update—caused some initial concerns around the Arizona primary, but ultimately vote counting was not affected. The outage could prompt discussions about how to mitigate against future outages, however, which will increase election official readiness.
Level 1 -In Arizona, a court mandated that voters must provide proof of citizenship to register to vote (currently, Arizona state law allows voters to register if they attest to being a citizen but are unable to provide proof; their ability to vote is restricted to federal elections, however). The ruling is being contested and an appeals court will hear the case in September. The uncertainty that this ongoing litigation creates should be watched to ensure that otherwise-eligible voters are not disenfranchised.
Level 1 - In Arizona, certain lawmakers are covertly promoting hand-counting ballots. Reporting has uncovered that a number of legislators in Arizona have been privately pressuring county officials to adopt hand-counting instead of machine tabulation. While hand-counting of ballots has a certain role to play in certain scenarios, a successful push to bar the use of voting tabulation machines in one or more of Arizona's counties would increase the level of concern. Read more about hand-counting ballots.
Level 2 - In Georgia, the state elections board passed a new regulation that would allow certification to occur “after reasonable inquiry.” The regulation is likely to be challenged in court because it violates Georgia state law which says that election officials have a mandatory, ministerial duty to certify election results by the statutory deadline. If the regulation remains in place it could increase the possibility that a Georgia official would attempt to refuse to certify and cause delays in the November election's counties would increase the level of concern.
How many severe developments occurred in the last month?
Political Violence and Certification Interference
While no severe developments occurred over the course of the past month, an incumbent president ending his reelection campaign with only months until the election is an unprecedented event. President Biden’s decision to drop out of the Presidential race does not, however, pose a threat to the integrity of the election. Per their rules, the Democratic Party was able to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris before their national convention, and election officials will be able to create ballots that recognize her candidacy. Read more about replacing a presumptive presidential nominee.
President Biden Drops Out
On July 21, President Biden announced on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he had decided to end his campaign for reelection. He shortly thereafter endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who subsequently launched her own campaign for the Democratic nomination. Harris quickly secured verbal commitments from enough delegates to become the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee. On August 5, Harris became the official nominee, and will face off against former President Trump for the presidency in November.
While a major party’s presumptive nominee withdrawing his presidential candidacy is an extraordinary occurrence, rules and procedures are in place to respond to this development. Americans can be confident that this situation falls well within existing rules and that their election system continues to allow for a free and fair election.
A political party has control over how to choose its nominee in accordance with the party's own governing rules. When a presumptive nominee withdraws before their party makes its nomination official—as was the case with President Biden—the party will follow its own rules and procedures to choose an official nominee. In this instance, the Democratic Party’s delegates have voted to nominate Vice President Harris. Read more about candidate succession before Election Day.
What are the top stories from last month to watch going forward?
How Election Administration developments will impact the election
A majority of this month’s developments fall into the Election Administration category, meaning they pertain to how elections are run in a given state. While none of this month’s developments cause concern at the time of this analysis, it is quite possible that any number of them could have an impact on the administration of the election.
While states have the right to make changes to their elections laws and procedures, changes to previously established election laws, rules, and guidances can lead to confusion, which can lead to the spread of mis/disinformation. This month’s Election Administration developments all warrant continued monitoring and discussion as the election approaches.